郭思治:2月大市開局相當反覆
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,昨天(3日)大市不但未能紅盤高開,反之,在沽壓一面倒主導下,整個大市又再初呈反覆不明之趨勢,恆指昨早市先低開176點至20,048點,其後曾略爲後抽至20,129點,但由於買盤不繼,加上零碎沽壓又再不斷滲着涌現,故整個大市卒開始反覆回落,而恆指亦先行跌穿20,000點大關,其後再進一步急跌461點至19,764點方漸見喘定並作技術性後抽,而恆指亦順勢再回升至20,222點方漸受規限,從走勢上看,大市表現確相當反覆,雖技術上仍穩企於20,000點左近,但交投卻一片淡靜,即市內充滿觀望氣氛,恆指最後報收20,217點,較上日跌7點,全日總成交金額爲1,249億元。
再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在19,932點左近),100天線(約在19,780點左近),50天線(約在19,720點左近),20天線(約在19,648點左近)及250天線(約在18,302點左近),以恆指昨天曾一度低見19764點計,即大市已曾稍跌穿10天線,單從技術上看,大市已初呈反覆不明之趨勢,如整個反覆不明之趨勢不變,大市可能會再進一步往下試100天及50天線,即是說,大市於2月上旬或會先往下尋月內之低位,大市如欲擺脫不斷試低位之弱態,恆指必需重越20,000點並穩守其上,至於能否再進一步推上,則需視乎資金之入市態度而定,因大市之動力如不相配,升勢定必漸受規限。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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