植耀輝:2025年港股推介(下)
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,雖然踏入2025年了不足一個月,但金融市場已受多個消息刺激/拖累而變得相當波動:美國候任總統特朗普未上任已四處「點火」,投資者亦繼續關注內地經濟及A股行情,港股則一直處於「捱打」狀態,就連「股王」騰訊(00700.HK)亦成爲新一輪被狙擊對象,其股價亦顯着受壓。今次騰訊捲入「軍企名單」事件對其業務影響有限,但對港股投資信心之衝擊可不少。即使恆指19,000點能守穩,但要重見「2」字頭(兩萬點)暫時恐非易事矣。
上週已分享了部分2025年推介股,今日繼續談談餘下兩隻心水股份。津上機牀中國(01651.HK)(以下簡稱津上)主要業務爲顧名思義就是於內地從事銷售及製造TSUGAMI品牌之數控高精密機牀。受惠內地製造業包括汽車及一般機械加工行業資本開支增加,帶動機牀需求量增加,加上集團優化經營,截至去年9月底止營業額及股東應佔溢利分別上升32.4%及53.7%,當中毛利率上升4.4個百分點至32.1%創新高,反映津上在內地競爭激烈之機牀行業中仍能保持不俗競爭力。
集團對於行業展望亦較正面,雖然「新能源汽車行業或存在產能過剩,但供應鏈當中的激烈競爭帶來資源的整合,造成了局部的設備需求……未來數年內有望保持一定的數控機牀需求量」;另預期工業自動化、人形機器人以及醫療行業等行業將會有利機牀需求。以現價計津上估值不高,未來派息政策(不低於4成派息比率)亦相當穩定,唯一須留意是成交相當疏落,因此只適合中長線持有。
另一隻股份則是汽車零部件生產商敏實(00425.HK)。筆者本身並不看好車股,因存在競爭激烈以及產能過剩等擔憂。不過零部件供應則仍擁有較大發揮空間。至於敏實業務發展方面,雖然電池盒仍處高增長,惟股價去年表現跑輸大市,跌近4.2%,原因在於在加大產能之同時負債亦隨之上升,導致利息開支大增之餘,2023年年度更停止派息,自此股價亦無太大起色;不過自去年中期業績發佈後股價終見反彈,主要是集團調低資本開支,並以正自由現金流爲目標;另預期全年將恢復派息,以及計劃回購不多於10%股份。基於電池盒業務發展仍迅速(超過三成),整體毛利率仍有望改善等因素,可待股價回調至14元附近開始分段吸納。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有津上機牀股份)~
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