郭家耀:觀望貿易談判港股料反覆 內地通縮壓力持續
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(13日)個別發展,科技股表現較爲突出,標普500指數及納指走勢向上,道指則表現受壓,三大指數收市升跌不一。美元反覆回落,美國十年期債息維持於4.47釐水平,金價低位反彈,油價繼續造好。港股預託證券普遍上升,預料大市早段跟隨高開。
內地股市昨日向上,滬綜指高開高走,收市上升0.2%,滬深兩市成交額保持活躍。
港股連升多日後出現回吐,指數低開後持續向下,低見23,000點水平,尾市跌幅稍爲收窄,整體成交較上日減少。市場觀望貿易談判進一步進展,以及科技股季度業績表現,預料指數繼續於23,000至24,000點水平上落。
另國家統計局日前公佈4月份全國居民消費價格(CPI)按年下降0.1%,今年首4個月,CPI下降0.1%。按年計,食品菸酒類價格上漲0.3%,影響CPI上漲約0.07個百分點。食品中,鮮果價格上漲5.2%,影響CPI上漲約0.11個百分點;水產品價格上漲1.5%,影響CPI上漲約0.03個百分點;畜肉類價格上漲0.6%,影響CPI上漲約0.02個百分點,其中豬肉價格上漲5%,影響CPI上漲約0.06個百分點;鮮菜價格下降5%,影響CPI下降約0.1個百分點;糧食價格下降1.4%,影響CPI下降約0.02個百分點。另外,4月份全國工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)按年下降2.7%,降幅爲6個月來最大。今年首4個月,PPI按年下降2.4%。國家統計局表示,按月計,CPI由降轉漲,漲幅高於季節性水平0.2個百分點,主要是食品、出行服務回升帶動。按年計,CPI略有下降,主要受國際油價下行影響。PPI按月降幅與上月相同。影響4月PPI下降的主要原因,一是國際輸入性因素影響國內相關產業價格下行。國際貿易環境變化,部分國際大宗商品價格快速下行,影響國內相關產業價格下降;二是國內部分能源價格季節性下降。中國促消費等宏觀政策加強擴圍,高科技產業加快成長,部分行業需求增加,一些領域價格呈現積極變化。一是部分產業供需關係改善,價格降幅收窄。二是高技術產業發展帶動相關行業價格上漲。新質生產力不斷培育壯大,科技創新和產業創新深度融合,智能製造、高端設備製造等產業發展帶動相關產業價格按年上漲。內地通縮壓力持續,刺激消費政策進一步落實,有望減輕物價下調壓力,配合貿易談判露出曙光,宏觀經濟表現可望現起色。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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