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大行評級丨花旗:下調中通快遞目標價至22.6美元 價格戰對單票收入帶來下行風險
格隆匯 05-23 12:48
花旗發表報吿指,該行參與了中通快遞業績後會議,引述管理層指將維持2025年快遞業務量按年增長20%至24%的目標,預計中通將在未來幾個季度逐步重拾市場份額。由於價格戰對單票收入帶來下行風險,該行降其2025至27年各年non-GAAP盈測分別11%、16%及21%,並下調估值基礎,以預測今年14.4倍市盈率(原先為15倍)計,花旗將中通美股目標價從26.4美元下調至22.6美元,維持“買入”評級。該行指,中通快遞在2025年第二季度或實現高於行業平均的增長,並開始搶佔市場份額。該行預測中通快遞業務量按年增長18%,而行業增速為15%。考慮到價格競爭激烈,花旗銀行預計中通2025年第二季度激勵措施對單票收入(ASP)的負面影響仍然顯著,但重點客户收入(逆向物流)的積極影響將部分抵銷這一壓力。截至目前,第二季度零售包裹日業務量達600萬件,保持強勁增長勢頭。
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