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郭思治:大市已升近首個技術性阻力區
阿思達克 02-03 09:13
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,踏進蛇年首個交易日,筆者先祝各位新的一年事事如意,財源廣進,股運亨通,最重要是身體健康,開開心心。 蛇年大市能否如龍年一樣在先低後高之形態主導下大幅上升,技術上確有此憧憬,不妨從技術上看,去年大市是由1月22日之低位14,794點持續上升至10月7日之高位23,241點,即年內恆指共上升8,447點,單從走勢上看,大市己打破連續四年先高後低之弱態,惟由於升勢偏促,加上高臺買盤態度漸趨保守,故大市卒漸進入大幅急升後之回吐中,而恆指自去年10月7日高位23,241點開始之回吐,至今年1月13日低位18,671點止計,共回調4,570點,相對升幅爲8,447點計,即大市共回調升幅之54%,以跌幅計,技術上該屬正常回吐之幅度,亦即是說,單從走勢上看,大市自去年1月22日低位14,794點開始之升浪,論形態該可延續至今年。 再看移動線方面之表現,直到執筆一刻止計,各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在19,841點左近),100天線(約在19,755點左近),50天線(約在19,705點左近),20天線(約在19,633點左近)及250天線(約在18,283點左近),以恆指於1月28日報收於20,225點計,即己穩企於上述五組平均移動線之上,單從技術上看,只要大市能保持此形態不變,而成交金額又能再見暢旺,在動力配合之下,大市仍可續往上試頂。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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