植耀輝:臺積電(TSM.US)展望理想續持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股今年開局表現一般,年初至今累跌逾540點或2.7%,不過亦有個股表現強勁,中芯(00981.HK)便是其中之一。其股價雖然昨日(16日)終止五連跌,但年初至今已累升13%。刺激其股價持續攀升之最大動力就是芯片國產化概念,這一說法某程度上亦有實質支持,去年第三季收入便按年增加34%,另外根據研究機構Counterpoint去年第一季之統計,中芯在全球晶代工行業中以6%市佔率排行第三,惟與臺積電(TSM.US)(超過六成)及三星(約13%)之市佔率相比仍有一段距離。
中芯收入增長主要受惠內地市場需求增加,而且其大部分產品均爲成熟製程爲主,市場競爭相當激烈,雖有北水加持,但筆者認爲近日之升勢似乎有點「炒過龍」了。由於特朗普上任在即,現時亦難評估會否推出更多打壓措施,除非技術上出現新突破,否則亦建議大家只宜見好就收矣!
至於港股短期走向,A股表現依然是關鍵,不過下週(20日)特朗普將正式接任美國總統,其一言一行亦會觸動投資者神經,所以未來一段時間,金融市場或會出現較動盪行情,此點大家須加倍留意。而恆指現時反彈動力不足,故暫將繼繼續於19,000至20,000點區間上落。
另外,執筆之時臺積電亦已公佈去年第四季業績。期內收入268.8億美元,按年升37%,惟由於集團每月均公佈數據,增速理想已是預期之內。毛利率則達到59%,主要是3納米及5納米佔比由第三季52%進一步上升至60%所致,純利則增加57%。不過更值得留意的可能是集團對未來前者之看法。集團預期首季收入介乎250億至258億美元,環比下跌最多下跌5.5%,主要是受手機市場疲弱因素影響;毛利率則介乎57%至59%,兩者皆優於市場預期。另外資本開支380億至420億美元亦同樣高於預期。董事長魏哲家亦大派定心丸,表示2025年集團表現將更好並會跑贏同業,另外亦會持續受惠AI發展。至於2納米制程進展順利,亦將會於今年下半年量產。
照現時情況來看,先進製程佔比將持續上升(7納米或以上佔比由第三季之69%升至74%),對集團收入亦有一定保證;另外則是反映集團在行業之龍頭地位難以被挑戰。總體而言,除非AI需求突然降溫,以及地緣政局出現劇變,相信亦難動搖臺積電之發展勢頭,筆者亦會繼續視之爲核心持股。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人士,持有臺積電股份)~
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