中金:4月房地產投資和開工承壓 需求走弱背景下關注前端土地市場溫度變化
中金研報稱,4月房地產投資和開工承壓,需求走弱背景下關注前端土地市場溫度變化。4月受銷售回款影響,房企到位資金同比跌幅走闊至-5.3%(3月-3.9%),房地產投資同比跌11.3%(3月-10.0%),新開工面積同比跌22%(3月-18%),竣工面積同比跌28%(3月-12%),4月末施工面積同比跌9.7%(3月末爲-9.5%);在新房銷售疲弱背景下,企業投資意願和能力的邊際走弱符合我們此前預期。今年1-4月300城宅地成交建面和金額分別同比增長5%和34%(2024年分別爲-22%和-27%),該表現與頭部城市密集推地直接相關;往前看,我們認爲如需求端仍維持走弱態勢,需關注土地市場溫度邊際變化,這對投資端指標有一定前瞻意義。關注房地產及多元板塊投資機會。近期房地產銷售量價均邊際走弱,但外部環境擾動影響和需求端支持政策進展仍待觀察。
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