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大行評級|大和:預計貿易樂觀情緒將在短期內推高股市,列出具技術性交易機會的股票
大和發佈港股策略報告,預計貿易樂觀情緒將在短期內推高股市,恆生指數可能接近其3月高點,並認爲電子、紡織、航運和電氣設備等受關稅影響的行業存在戰術性交易機會,因此將立訊精密和華利集團加入該行的中資股首選名單,並剔出華潤啤酒等。該行挑選出中美貿易談判後尋找技術性交易機會的股票,其中港股包括百濟神州、瑞聲科技及比亞迪電子。
大和指,從長期角度來看,重申預計恆指再上行空間有限,因爲上證綜合指數和恆生指數已超過該行2025年中期目標(對恆指今年年中目標22700點),並接近其年底目標(對恆指今年年底目標24000點)。該行相信,兩個市場2.0%和7.5%的按年盈利預測已反映美國關稅降低的假設。此外,雖然首次美中談判的政策基調積極,但該行預計未來貿易談判仍將反覆,因爲雙方在貿易順差和技術限制等領域仍存在分歧。最後,美中貿易談判的積極進展可能降低強力刺激措施的緊迫性。
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