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大行評級|花旗:HIBOR下降可能會爲香港銀行淨息差帶來短期壓力

花旗發表研報指,港元兌美元觸及7.75強方兌換保證,促使金管局出手幹預,向市場注入資金,令香港銀行體系結餘從4月底的450億港元增至5月8日的約1740億港元,流動性增加推動香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)下降。截至5月8日,一個月期HIBOR已降至2.09%,月內累計下降1.86個百分點,花旗認爲可能會爲銀行淨息差帶來短期壓力,一個月HIBOR低於2.2%,更可能導致按揭貸款息口重新定價。

根據花旗估算,香港利率每下降25個基點,恆生銀行及中銀香港的稅前利潤將面臨1.3%及2.1%的下行壓力,而匯豐銀行及渣打將面對0.3%及0.2%的負面影響。倘若最優惠利率(Prime Rate)按揭“封頂位”失守,花旗預期恆生、中銀香港、匯豐及渣打盈利的負面影響將擴大至4.9%、4.5%、1.1%及1.2%。

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