銀河證券:電子行業堅定“科技自立”與“AI+”投資主線
銀河證券研報認為,截至2024年四季度末,主動型公募基金重倉持股對電子行業的配置佔基金股票投資市值比例達到9.63%,已屬超配。年初至今,受Deepseek探索出大模型發展新路徑、中央召開民營企業家座談會以及國內頭部雲廠商增加資本開支等多重因素影響,電子行業指數進一步上升。但受美國關税政策影響,全球產業鏈“區塊化”將加速。預計關税政策會對全球製造業巨大影響。其中部分半導體產品,如邏輯芯片、存儲芯片暫免關税,但配套材料(如載板、封裝膠)加税推高整體半導體行業的製造成本。在全球半導體產業格局不斷演變的當下,國際貿易環境複雜多變,海外大廠為避免關税影響,佈局中國業務時可能更多采用Local for local(本地化生產以供應本地需求)生產策略,美國關税政策對中國半導體行業的影響較為有限,短期來看,依賴美國市場的企業將面臨壓力。長期來看,關税的影響有可能帶來下游需求復甦的推遲、相關訂單的取消等情況,國產替代和自主可控的企業有望受益。
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