華泰證券:短期豬價雖可能出現超預期波動 但後市豬價下跌趨勢或難改
華泰證券研報稱,一季度末統計局監測能繁母豬存欄環比下降0.96%,結束了連續3個季度的環比增加;第三方數據監測能繁母豬存欄多顯示一季度仍在持續環比增加,其中湧益側重於大企業的樣本2能繁存欄亦出現了環比下降,降幅為0.23%。另外,春節後豬價持續表現為淡季不淡、且近日出現了超預期小幅上升,或主要系二育等累庫支撐,考慮到3月以來肥標價差快速收窄+天氣逐漸升温後肥豬日增重可能減慢、大肥豬需求可能減弱+前期能繁母豬存欄及新生仔豬數增加對應後市供應增加,短期豬價雖可能受二育進場節奏等影響出現超預期波動,但後市豬價下跌趨勢或難改。目前豬價行情下,自繁自養生豬仍保有50元左右的頭均盈利,產能去化趨勢或尚不明確,期待豬價跌至行業虧損區間後的產能去化正式啟動。持續關注能繁產能去化正式啟動後的投資機會。
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