研報掘金丨中金:維持中國神華“跑贏行業”評級,有望憑藉更好的銷售結構降低盈利波動
中金公司研報指出,中國神華2024年自產煤噸成本爲179元/噸,同比持平,成本控制得當;展望2025年,公司年報指引2025年自產煤噸成本同比增幅控制在6%內(過去幾年公司噸成本同比增幅指引爲10%內,指引幅度出現下調;2024年公司成本指引爲同比+10%內,實際持平)。短期看,公司持續推進降本增效,同時公司2024年末專項儲備爲233.19億元,“蓄水池充裕”;中長期看,考慮到通脹、人工成本上漲,煤炭行業噸成本擡升是大趨勢。從中國神華角度看,公司長協比例高(~80%)、內供比例高(若考慮集團,合計~80%),公司25Q1長協履約率接近100%,有望憑藉更好的銷售結構降低盈利波動。維持盈利預測、“跑贏行業”評級、目標價(A股42元/港股36港幣)不變。
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