巨化股份(600160.SH)：本次R134a及部分混配製冷劑、HFOs列入美國本次加徵關税豁免清單
格隆匯4月7日丨巨化股份(600160.SH)在互動平台表示，本次R134a及部分混配製冷劑、HFOs列入美國本次加徵關税豁免清單，執行原關税率；本次美國對阿聯酋加徵10%基準税率，相對印度等主要生產國進入美國市場有一定的關税優勢，利於本公司在阿聯酋的子公司；目前美國對我國出口的R134a、R125、R32及其混配物已徵收反傾銷、反補貼關税（200%+）+20%關税，2024年本公司國內出口美國的製冷劑（均為HFOs）產品收入佔公司營收不足2%；當前美國正推進R454B（68.9%R32+31.1%R1234y混配物）對R410A（50%R32+50%R125混配物）的替代，相較於R410A“反傾銷、反補貼關税（200%+）+20%關税”、R454B“20%關税”，實際出口美國R32關税大幅下降；當下，全球競爭格局中，中國供應占80%以上，中國、印度、阿聯酋合計佔90以上，中國前5家頭部企業佔中國的90%左右，競爭格局高度集中，尤其是第三代製冷劑，中國上述頭部企業有較高的定價權；製冷劑下游的汽車、家用空調、工商農部門空調設備具有剛需和生活消費品屬性，製冷劑作為下游空調設備的功能製劑（成本佔比低），主機需求+不斷增長的空調設備保有量的售後維修需求保持增長趨勢，且具有高價格彈性；目前，中國“設備更新、以舊換新”政策深入推進，且不排除進一步加大刺激汽車、空調消費力度，帶動製冷劑消費，此外，全球南方是空調（生活改善必須）的成長地區且潛力空間巨大，因此，預計製冷劑及其下游仍有良好增長空間；中國目前第二代、三代氟製冷劑已實行生產配額制，部分產品供不應求且本次中美加徵“對等關税”，不會改變氟製冷劑競爭格局、供需格局和價格上行趨勢，亦不會改變本公司製冷劑出口按出廠價定價政策。 綜上，本公司製冷劑產品不受本次中美“對等關税”影響，其盈利增長的趨勢目前預計不會改變。 具體關税税率以中美政府公佈的為準。鑑於以上只是初步分析，且關税政策後續仍有較大不確定性。僅供參考。
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