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研報掘金丨中金:料農夫山泉今年收入雙位數增長 上調目標價至40港元
格隆匯 03-27 13:13
中金報吿指,農夫山泉(9633.HK)去年業績符預期,預計今年收入有望在低基數下重回雙位數增長,考慮市場估值上行,上調目標價14%至40港元,維持“跑贏行業”評級。中金指,農夫山泉包裝水市佔率有望在低基數下進一步回升。根據調研顯示,今年1至2月在高基數下水降幅顯著收窄,“東方樹葉”維持穩健增長,預計今年或有望適當收縮“綠瓶”水折扣力度,通過品牌建設及新規格等動作推動“紅瓶”水市佔率回升。茶飲方面,有望加強品牌營銷端投入及推出新口味等應對行業白熱化競爭,進一步擴大無糖茶行業競爭優勢。認為外部擾動帶來的最差時期基本過去,今年收入有望重回雙位數增長。中金維持該集團今年盈利預測不變,預期純利為139.88億元人民幣,營業額495.44億元人民幣,即按年增15.38%,及15.5%,預期市盈率25.5倍。預測明年純利157.7億元人民幣,收入料達552.02億元人民幣,預期市盈率為22.3倍。預期今明兩年股息收益率為2.8%及3.2%。
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