研報掘金|中金:維持匯豐控股“跑贏行業”評級 上調2026年盈利預測
中金預計,匯豐控股的調整後收入在2025年將按年下降0.4%,並在2026年按年增長2.3%;調整後稅前利潤在2025年將按年下降2.9%,並在2026年按年增長2.3%。此外,中金預計該公司的調整後有形股本回報率(RoTE)在2025年和2026年將分別達到16.1%和16%,達到公司指引中雙位數(14%至16%)的上限。因此,其RoTE預測相較當前市場預測可能會向上修正。中金基本維持匯控2025年盈利預測不變,但將2026年盈利預測上調3.9%至244.7億美元,因爲該行預計匯控長期收入將保持韌性。匯控目前以2025年預計市賬率1.1倍和2026年預測市賬率1倍交投,其股東回報(股息+股份回購)分別達到12%和11%,顯示出具吸引力的估值。中金認爲,匯控估值相較國際同業的折讓收窄,以及市場對其股本回報率(ROE)共識的上調,可能推動重新評價。中金維持匯控“跑贏行業”評級,目標價爲102.3港元。
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