大行評級|建銀國際:呼和浩特育兒補貼提振市場信心 乳製品企業將成爲主要受益者
建銀國際發表報告,指內蒙古呼和浩特宣佈了超出預期的政策以鼓勵生育。在上週的兩會期間,2025年政府工作報告明確指出政府將制定政策促進生育,發放育兒補貼,大力發展綜合育兒服務,並增加包容性育兒服務的供應。建銀國際表示,呼和浩特的補貼計劃在補貼金額和覆蓋範圍上均超出市場預期。深圳、武漢及其他地區目前正在考慮推出自己的育兒補貼和支持性政策。雖然其他城市的補貼金額可能不如呼和浩特慷慨,但若全國範圍內實施類似政策,該行認爲這將在一定程度上整體提升國家的出生率。建銀國際預計,領先的中國乳製品公司將從新的政策方向中受益。該行偏好中國飛鶴,評級“跑贏大市”,因爲相信其憑藉高端品牌和穩固的銷售網絡將繼續獲得市場份額。該行對蒙牛也給予“跑贏大市”評級,因其盈利前景改善;對伊利同樣給予“跑贏大市”評級,基於其穩健的盈利增長表現、市場份額提升及強大的執行力。
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