金川國際(02362.HK)配股背後的戰略博弈:在銅鈷價格週期中尋求突圍
3月13日早盤,港股市場的一則配股公告引發關注。
金川國際(02362.HK)宣佈以每股0.628港元的價格配售6.3億股股份,較近30個交易日平均收盤價0.562港元溢價約11.68%,共計籌款約4億港元。
消息公佈後,公司股價低開逾9%,盤中跌幅一度擴大超13%。這一波動背後,是市場對配股的短期擔憂,以及投資者對銅鈷價格週期及公司戰略佈局的長期博弈。
市場反應:短期壓力與長期預期的碰撞
短期來看,股權稀釋效應的確引發了市場拋售,但長期來看,這一舉措符合公司推進核心項目的需求,有助於公司業績快速釋放。
從公告內容來看,此次配股計劃是一次“以股權換時間”的經典操作。
根據公告,配售股份佔公司現有股本的5.04%、擴大後股本的4.8%,主要資金將用於剛果(金)Musonoi銅鈷礦項目的深加工階段開發。
Musonoi項目的重要性無需多言,其擁有銅資源量達108.5萬噸、鈷儲量60.6萬噸,其銅平均品位超過4%、鈷品位達0.9%,高於行業平均水平。投產後,Musonoi項目年產能將達到4.38萬噸銅、1.1萬噸鈷。
某種程度上說,Musonoi可以稱得上金川國際當下最重要的項目。
據悉,目前Musonoi項目的採礦、選礦基本全面完成,深加工項目建設所需物資也已全部完成採購並已運抵現場,但還需爲深加工建設的後續建設所需款項及部分生產準備金做籌備。此次配售所募資金恰恰能夠幫助加快釋放Musonoi項目產能,提高公司生產經營能力。
此外,當下也是一個不容錯過的時間窗口。
今年2月24日,剛果(金)政府宣佈暫停出口鈷四個月。作爲全球最大鈷產量國,2024年剛果(金)鈷礦產量約佔全球76%,此項禁令無疑會大幅影響當前鈷的供需關係,據中信證券測算,若該政策嚴格執行,此舉或將影響6.7萬噸的鈷供應量,並帶動2025年全球鈷礦供應轉爲短缺,推動鈷價持續反彈。
同時,具體來看,供應端受制於智利、祕魯等主產國的礦石品位下降、環保政策及地緣風險,疊加廢銅短缺和冶煉廠減產;需求端則因新能源車、風電光伏及AI算力等綠色產業用銅激增,同時美國關稅政策與美元走弱進一步推升市場投機。供需缺口擴大與金融屬性共振,推動銅價進入上行週期。今年以來銅價持續上漲,COMEX銅價年內累計漲幅約20%。
由此來看,金川國際此次配股的深層邏輯,在於加速Musonoi項目的深加工能力建設,以把握銅鈷資源價值鏈條的制高點。通過股權融資快速補足資金缺口,金川國際有望在2025年下半年實現產能釋放,直接受益於銅鈷價格剪刀差擴大。
結語
金川國際的配股決策,本質上是資源企業在價格上行週期中的主動卡位。短期來看,市場對股權稀釋的擔憂合理,但若將視角拉長,Musonoi項目的產能釋放與銅鈷價格週期的疊加效應,可能重塑公司估值邏輯。投資者需關注兩大關鍵節點:一是2025年二季度剛果(金)鈷出口政策的實際執行力度,二是Musonoi深加工生產線能否按計劃如期投產。
在新能源革命與地緣政治交織的當下,資源企業的勝負手不僅在於“家里有礦”,更在於能否將資源優勢轉化爲產業鏈話語權。金川國際的此番動作,或將成爲檢驗這一命題的試金石。
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