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銻價狂飆!工業“味精”供應趨緊,有色金屬板塊集體狂歡

今日(3月7日),有色金屬板塊逆市表現亮眼,被稱為銻礦"三劍客"的華鈺礦業、湖南黃金、株冶盤中集團集體封板,中鎢高新升超8%,章源鎢業、寶鈦股份等跟升。

消息面上,受美國潛在關税政策及中國經濟增長目標影響,近期有色金屬價格多數上升

近期最引人注目的是銻產品價格的大幅上升。

據我的鋼鐵網數據顯示,3月7日銻價格已達到18.3萬元/噸,較2月初的14.2萬元/噸上升了約28.87%。這一升幅在短短一個月內就已經相當可觀,反映出市場對銻產品需求的強勁增長。

海外銻價也銻價狂飆,從更長的時間維度看,國際銻的現貨價格從2019年開始上升,升了5倍。

2024年8月15日我國發布銻出口管制公吿,海外由於缺乏冶煉產能而極度缺乏銻品,銻價也從23000一路上升至50000,且上升並未減速。

中信建投證券表示,銻或許是大國博弈下結構供需矛盾最大的戰略金屬,沒有任何一種金屬因大國博弈產生如此巨大的價差,國內銻出口管制公吿發布後,呈現了“中國管制銻品出口——外盤銻價上升——“麪粉比麪包貴”,國內減少外礦進口——內盤缺貨銻價上升”的循環,且此循環目前仍在持續;此外,下游需求復甦,光伏玻璃、阻燃劑價格都已開始上升。

天風證券認為,整體而言,今年銻的供需與去年相比,向着更難解的供給擾動與更有希望的需求景氣演繹。這樣的供需邊際變化有望推動銻價持續上行,不斷刷新歷史新高。

此外,近日,全球最大鈷生產國剛果(金)宣佈暫停鈷出口四個月,旨在調控國際市場上鈷的供需關係‌。

這一政策直接導致鈷價格飆升,鈷酸鋰,三元價格也隨之上升。目前大部分鈷酸鋰廠商已停止報價。

據各材料廠家分析及通知,在未來的幾個月中,材料價格依然成上升趨勢。

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