掘金下沉市場，蜜雪冰城(2097.HK)、匯通達網絡(9878.HK)或踏上新風口
今日，蜜雪冰城(02097.HK)將在港股上市。據此前公吿顯示，蜜雪冰城計劃全球發售數量為1705.99萬股H股，其中170.6萬股H股於香港公開發售，1535.39萬股H股於國際發售。發行價為202.5港元，每手100股，最低認購2.045萬港元，募資總額約34.55億港元。發行後總市值約763.55億港元。
2月26日富途牛牛數據顯示，蜜雪冰城以1.82萬億港元的申購額，超越快手1.26萬億港元的紀錄，成為港股IPO的新晉“凍資王”。2月28日，利弗莫爾證券顯示，蜜雪冰城暗盤升近30%，其IPO發行價定於每股202.5港元。
行業分析，蜜雪冰城之所以備受市場青睞，一方面得益於蜜雪冰城對於下沉市場的開發；另一方面離不開其構建端到端的供應鏈體系，已成為中國現制飲品供應鏈領域中生產品類最全和規模最大的企業。其估值邏輯與同樣深耕下沉市場的匯通達網絡(9878.HK)形成資本對標。
下沉市場的藍海價值近期被持續關注，從拼多多到蜜雪冰城，資本市場對‘下沉市場龍頭’的定價邏輯逐漸清晰：供應鏈效率+規模化網絡=長期壁壘。據麥肯錫預測，2030年中國66%消費增量將來自三線及以下市場，這一賽道正從‘藍海’轉向資本必爭之地。
市面上蜜雪冰城以外，同樣聚焦下沉市場，定位服務b端客户的匯通達網絡(9878.HK)，近期也在加速佈局供應鏈及數字化升級。
與蜜雪冰城直接觸達C端消費者不同，匯通達網絡通過供應鏈能力和數字化平台賦能下沉市場超24.6萬家會員店及1.2萬家產業上游客户，構建‘產業路由器’角色，規模在國內 to b 服務行業中已排名第一。這一模式更易實現輕資產擴張與網絡效應，毛利率與用户粘性具備長期提升空間。
中央一號文件連續多年強調“縣域商業體系建設”，匯通達網絡的供應鏈基礎設施與下沉市場門店網絡深度契合政策方向。上週五消息，匯通達網絡召開“自有品牌集羣發佈會”，官宣未來供應鏈工程及9大品類、上百款新產品。
通過其公佈的3項品牌工程可見，國內下沉市場已經出現明顯的多極化：品牌偏好開始顯現，性價比、質價比需求依然明顯，長尾、個性化需求長期存在。
蜜雪冰城的成功驗證了下沉市場“高性價比產品+高效供應鏈”的商業模型，而匯通達網絡進一步解決了該市場的底層痛點——分散的零售終端與低效的流通體系。通過“反向+短鏈+數字化”，匯通達網絡正在構建中國最大的下沉市場產業互聯網平台。
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