大行評級|大摩:上調中芯國際目標價至38港元 訂單成長動能可能延續到第二季
摩根士丹利發表研報指,受消費補貼及先進節點需求推動,中芯2025財年首季營收及毛利率指引超出預期,至於成熟節點價格競爭可能在今年下半年加劇。大摩引述中芯管理層指引,2025財年首季營收將增長6%至8%,毛利率將達19%至21%,超過該行及市場預期。管理層亦指,中央今年首季對智能手機及個人計算機的消費補貼,可能推動終端銷售增長15%至20%。加上顧客為因應美國關税變化而提前囤貨,導致中芯在今年首季出現急單,而這種訂單成長動能很可能延續到第二季。
大摩將中芯H股目標價由20.3港元上調至38港元,維持“減持”評級。該行解釋,評級源於先進製程產能仍受限;另更高收入料帶來更高營運槓桿,但折舊開支增加帶來不確定性。而且中芯估值高昂,自去年11月中旬以來累升約61%,計及最近業績及指引,其估值相當於預測今年市賬率2.2倍,較歷史均值高出3個標準差,並逼近2010年所創歷史高位,預測今年股本回報率僅4.8%,大摩認為估值並不吸引。
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