研報掘金丨國泰君安:看好AI PC加速滲透帶來估值提升,給予聯想集團16港元目標價
國泰君安證券昨日發佈研報稱,模型本地化部署帶動AI PC滲透率提升,長期看模型降本將催生各類AI垂類應用,AI PC應用場景得以豐富。聯想作為PC龍頭充分受益。看好AI PC加速滲透為聯想帶來估值提升,給予聯想集團FY 2025目標價16港元,維持“增持”評級。該行指出:DeepSeek蒸餾小模型支持本地化部署,對硬件要求較高,高性能的AI PC具備硬件優勢,AI PC長期滲透是必然趨勢。DeepSeek的蒸餾小模型表現出色,推動模型在PC本地化部署,為用户提供了更高的靈活性和更強的隱私保護,適用於對數據安全和推理延遲有較高要求的場景。而本地部署DeepSeek對內存和GPU有一定要求,以DeepSeek 7B模型為例,僅考慮模型權重,FP16和INT8精度下分別需要約14GB/7GB內存,若考慮到推理過程中的額外輸入輸出緩存,則需要更高的內存。AI PC在GPU、內存、散熱等硬件方面具備優勢,因此在本地部署DeepSeek情形下具備更強的可行性與推理效果,在AI轉向端側的產業趨勢下,AI PC將長期滲透。長期看,高性能、低成本的模型將催化AI應用,解決AI PC應用場景匱乏的問題。當前用户對AI PC 換機意願不強的主要原因是AI PC缺乏殺手級應用場景。DeepSeek實現高性能模型的大幅降本,有望催化AI應用落地,實現各類垂類場景應用,進而豐富AI PC的使用場景、推動換機。以聯想、沐曦GPU發佈的一體機解決方案為例,實際編程開發場景中,基於DeepSeek的代碼生成功能實現35%及以上採納率。聯想作為AI PC龍頭充分受益,積極接入DeepSeek。據IDC,2024年聯想PC出貨6180萬台,同比增速 4.7%高於大盤的1.0%,市佔率23.5%穩居第一,作為PC龍頭將充分受益AI PC換機加速趨勢。聯想宣佈個人智能體小天接入DeepSeek,用户可在聯想AI PC系列產品上直接使用,以聯想YOGA Air 15 Aura AI元啟版為例,用户可以一鍵喚醒個人智能體“聯想小天”,在AI Space中點擊DeepSeek即可使用,後續會與DeepSeek探索更多垂直場景的合作。
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