大行評級丨交銀國際:首予英偉達“買入”評級及目標價170美元 指未見其停下的理由
交銀國際發佈研究報吿指,未見英偉達停下的理由,首次覆蓋該股,予“買入”評級,目標價為170美元。該行料今明兩財年的非通用會計準則(non-GAAP)每股盈利分別為2.95美元及4.32美元。該行認為,市場對2026年公司收入能見度的提高以及零售GPU業務的興起,或將是未來股價的重要催化劑。
該行指,公司長期仍然佔據加速計算晶芯片支配地位,認為對於近期出現的ASIC挑戰英偉達市佔率的討論,該行測算,英偉達2025年仍然會有超過87%的AI加速芯片市場,而且在相當長的時間內(至少到2027年),英偉達市佔率保持在80%以上。隨大模型算法演進變緩,加上推理任務比例增加,ASIC的市佔率或有所增加,但過程或是緩慢漸進的。同時,大模型算法依然在不斷演進,會提高開發ASIC解決方案的難度,使ASIC解決方案的拓展性值得進一步觀察。而英偉達以CUDA為基礎的解決方案則或繼續發揮出較好的靈活性。
該行亦提出,預測英偉達在明年或可得到全球66%的CoWoS產能,Blackwell在第四財季開始發貨後,預測數據中心業務收入在2025財年或達到1734億美元。首三財季及第三財季,內地市場佔英偉達收入分別為12.7%和15.4%,內地市場長期或仍將是公司最重要的市場之一。
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