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中信建投鋼鐵行業2025年投資策略:強化產量控制下的鋼鐵供需新秩序
中信建投發佈研報指出,伴隨着9月底以來多個會議召開及多項政策的公佈,市場對於未來需求提振的信心明顯抬升,反應到價格上增幅也較為明顯。面向未來,一方面,美聯儲降息週期來臨及我國一系列財政貨幣政策將進一步提升市場需求,粗鋼產量的控制也可能向着愈發嚴格的方向對鋼價形成實質性利好。另一方面,特朗普政府的重新上台將會對我國機電產品的出口產生一定影響,從而衝擊我國鋼材間接出口。而未來幾年全球鐵礦石產能的持續投放也將減弱原材料端的成本支撐,或將拖累鋼價。綜合來看,預計2025年鋼價在當前基礎上有支撐,整體仍以震盪為主,在更加嚴格的產量控制預期下全年行業利潤有望回正。
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