大行評級|瑞銀:預計今年餘下時間香港樓價將大致企穩或輕微回升
瑞銀髮表研報指,美國正式進入減息週期,港銀隨即宣佈跟隨減息步伐,將港元最優惠利率下調25個基點,意外成為香港樓市的“中秋節禮物”,帶來利好消息,新造一手住宅按揭利率將由4.125%降至3.88%,有助於收窄與租金回報率之間的負息差。綜合市場上對美國今明兩年減息預測,瑞銀目前預期至明年底香港的新造按揭息率可降至2.9%,即較目前的3.88%進一步下降97個基點。假設今年港元最優惠利率可進一步下調25個基點,而租金回報率維持在3.5%,該行預測至今年底香港住宅應大致處於中性水平,可為樓市交投帶來支持。瑞銀重申今年香港樓價下跌約5%的預測,換言之今年餘下時間樓價將大致企穩或輕微回升,看好恒基地產、嘉裏建設及新鴻基地產等發展商可受惠。
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