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大行評級|摩根大通:國有銀行淨息差受惠十年期國收益息曲線上移
摩根大通發表報吿指,十年期國債收益率自8月5日來已經反彈12個基點,部分原因是國企銀行的國債操作。在內銀中,國有銀行可能會從收益率曲線上移中更多地受惠於淨利息收入,因為國有銀行的LDR低於股份制銀行(交行除外)。此外,國有銀行的交易收入貢獻較低,因此相對於股份制銀行,較不容易受到債券價格波動的影響。該行認為國有內銀淨息差受惠十年期國債收益率曲線上移,不過,十年期國債收益率能否持續反彈,更多取決於市場對前景的信心仍然疲弱。因此,該行不預期國債收益率上升會引發資金輪轉離開高息股。最新發展支持該行對國有銀行的行業偏好,偏好次序為工商銀行、農業銀行、建設銀行和中國銀行。
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