大行評級|大和:下調華潤啤酒目標價至34港元 下調2024至26財年每股盈測
大和發表研報指,華潤啤酒股價在過去三個月回調約30%,或是反映今年第二季度公司銷售渠道出貨量表現不佳的因素。該行認為,市場低估潤啤持續的溢價及利潤韌性。啤酒業務方面,該行預計潤啤今年上半年啤酒營收按年下跌0.5%;平均售價提高約2.8%,部分抵銷3.2%的銷量萎縮情況。該行亦預期,啤酒業務毛利率將按年改善0.7個百分點,息税前利潤率按年增長0.2個百分點。白酒業務方面,該行預期潤啤上半年白酒營收按年增長約20%;EBITDA利潤率將按年持平;淨利潤按年增長1%。該行亦指,透過持續的產品組合升級及嚴格成本管理,預期潤啤今年維持穩定的利潤率表現。
考慮到消費者信心疲弱及營運去槓桿化的影響,大和將潤啤2024至2026財年的每股盈利預測下調5%至12%。該行將潤啤目標價由49港元下調至34港元,維持“買入”評級。
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