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科技股9000億美元大崩盤後,美股將迎來關鍵一週!

近期,美股的走勢整體偏弱,市場開始討論科技股泡沫破裂、大小盤股的風格切換。

芯片股遭重挫

本週,納指、標普500指數連續下跌,均錄得4月以來的最大單週跌幅。

科技股遭拋售,標普500指數的科技板塊一週內下跌了近6%,市值縮水約9000億美元。

“七大巨頭”巨頭大跌,亞馬遜跌超5%,谷歌、Meta跌超4%,微軟、特斯拉跌超3%,蘋果跌超2%。

芯片股的“失血”最為明顯,半導體指數週內下跌了近9%。

個股AMD跌超16%,美光科技跌超14%,台積電跌超11%,ARM跌超9%,高通、英偉達跌超8%,博通跌超7%,英特爾跌超4%。

與此同時,儘管小盤股行情有所退潮,羅素2000指數本週仍然上升超1.68%。

關鍵的一週

下週對於美股未來的走勢至關重要,多家大型科技公司將發佈上季度財報。

特斯拉、谷歌將是最早公佈業績的“七巨頭”,將於下週二美股盤後發佈。

分析師可能會關注特斯拉自動駕駛出租車計劃的進展、電動汽車的需求問題,並深入研究谷歌通過AI實現收入的細節。

美國知名投研公司Zacks預計,特斯拉上季度收益為每股0.62美元,同比-31.9%;收入為251.3億美元,同比增長0.8%。谷歌雲服務收入預計為100.8億美元,同比增長25.5%。

隨後的一週,微軟、Meta、亞馬遜和蘋果公司也將公佈財報。而英偉達要到8月底才會公佈業績。

GDS Wealth Management的Glen Smith表示:“如果我們看到強勁的科技收益和疲軟的通脹相結合,這可能會扭轉市場近期的疲軟局面,並引發新一輪上升。”

Ameriprise Financial的首席市場策略師Anthony Saglimbene認為,本月早些時候的通脹數據讓許多投資者措手不及,該數據幾乎鞏固了人們對9月降息的預期,從而引發市場轉向。

Saglimbene建議,投資者利用科技股的部分回調作為長期配置的機會。他認為,即將發佈的業績可能會緩解大型科技公司的拋售壓力。

華爾街看好

對於美股的回調,華爾街普遍預料到了,但長期依然看好。

高盛的策略師表示,今年夏天股市存在回調的風險。下半年市場更有可能出現回調,而不是熊市。 

高盛分析,這可能是“經濟數據走弱,美聯儲已經更為鴿派,以及美國大選前政策不確定性上升等因素共同作用的結果”。

美銀的策略師表示,隨着投資者越來越確信美聯儲將在9月降息,以及特朗普將贏得大選,投資者紛紛湧入美國股市。 

美銀援引EPFR Global數據寫道,截至週三的一週內,美國股票基金吸收了約450億美元的資金,創下有史以來第四大流入量。小型股基金流入99億美元,為有史以來第二大流入量,而大型股基金則流入274億美元。 

美銀還表示,美聯儲降息後股市可能會下跌,稱這是“買入消息,賣出事實”的機會。

美銀還看好債券,預計特朗普在未來一年內實施的任何新關税都將“導致通貨緊縮而非通貨膨脹”。

瑞銀今年第四次上調了標普500指數的目標價,最新預計該指數今年將收於5,900點,牛市目標為6500點,這意味着還能再升7%-18%。

瑞銀認為,由於以下因素,市場背景仍然有利:1)利潤增長穩健且不斷擴大,2)通脹放緩,3)美聯儲轉向降息,4)對人工智能基礎設施和應用的投資激增。

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