研報掘金|中金:預計澳門第二季總博彩收入按年增長24% 美高梅中國有望引領行業復甦
中金髮表報吿,預計澳門第二季總博彩收入按年增長24%,按季下降1.6%,恢復至2019年第二季總博收的77%;行業EBITDA按年增長23%,但按季下降1%至20.2億美元,恢復至2019年第二季的84%,考慮到總賭收表現持續強勁,疊加再投資比率環境較為穩定。中金預計澳門博彩業第三季總賭收按季增長2%,按年增長17%。該行下調全年行業EBITDA預測3%,上調明年行業EBITDA預測1%,預計分別恢復至2019年水平的90%和106%。
該行認為美高梅中國有望繼續引領第二季行業總賭收復蘇,重申“跑贏行業”評級。市場份額方面,預計第二季銀娛和新濠博亞娛樂將受益於旗下新物業放量,而取得更多的總賭收市場份額,而永利澳門旗下物業由於與新濠影匯二期和銀河三期的定位及目標客羣相似,或將丟失最多的總賭收和中場賭收市場份額。該行對金沙中國目標價由32港元下調至26.8港元,基於倫敦人二期翻新工程或影響盈利。
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