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研報掘金丨東吳證券:貴州茅台估值位於歷史低位,維持“買入”評級

東吳證券研報指出,5月以來飛天茅台酒批價持續快速下跌,引發集中關注和較大擔憂,市場對貴州茅台(600519.SH)能否採取有效穩價舉措信心不足,對中長期需求的穩定性信心不足。近期公司管理層一方面加強市場調研和經銷商溝通指導,批價應聲企穩反彈(當前散瓶批價較6月低位反彈約250元),一方面加強和投資者互動,傾聽投資者聲音和建議,正面迴應市場關切,體現了龍頭擔當。該行認為在行業調整期認知前提下,茅台酒批價適度回調能夠釋放價格和經營風險,公司將以拓展新興產業需求增強供需適配和加碼國際化等舉措應對國內宏觀週期,以加強渠道管控和精準化投放來平衡量價,稀釋“投資需求”變弱和黃牛亂價帶來的波動加劇。相比上一輪調整期,茅台核心競爭力更加強化,產品矩陣更加完善,渠道更加多元,消費者價值和渠道利潤護城河更厚更寬,抵禦週期的韌性也更強。從連續2年的特別分紅到更為積極的投資者互動,都彰顯了利益的一致性,無論短期和中長期,公司市值管理工具箱仍較為豐滿,平衡量價,保持合理增速水平,較高分紅,都易獲得投資者認同。估值位於公司歷史低位,維持“買入”評級。

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