大行評級|花旗:聚焦三中全會列出8項潛在催化劑 首選拼多多、李寧及比亞迪等
花旗發表研究報吿指,三中全會將於7月15至18日召開,憧憬出口及非房地產基礎建設投資將仍是下半年中國內地經濟主要動力。花旗表明較看好可受惠於出口增長和大宗商品價格上升的股份,市場首選拼多多、ASMPT、中國鋁業、創科實業、美高梅中國、李寧及比亞迪。
花旗並列出八大催化劑,按發生概率排列依次為:(1)結構性改革,料影響電力、房地產和保險等主要行業;(2)可再生能源和電網設備、汽車、半導體等的跨境貿易發展;(3)電信、銀行、保險行業的國企改革;(4)房地產寬鬆措施對房市、銀行及保險業的幫助;(5)解決太陽能、材料、半導體行業產能過剩問題;(6)消費及互聯網產業用於應對人口老齡化;(7)消費及互聯網產業消費復甦;以及(8)對民營企業的支持舉措所推動的互聯網、IT服務和軟件行業發展。目前該行預測人行會於今年第三季及第四季分別減息一次,每次10個基點,對未來三個月、以及六至十二個月人民幣預測,則分別為7.25及7.35兑一美元。
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