The competition for the U.S. election is becoming increasingly fierce. However, on Thursday (May 30th), in the hush money trial of former U.S. President Donald Trump held in New York, 12 jurors found Trump guilty on all 34 counts, making him the first U.S. President to be convicted of a felony. The sentencing of Trump will be announced on July 11th, just a few days before Republicans will officially declare him as the 2024 Republican presidential candidate, although he has already secured the candidate's slot in advance. Trump is also facing three other criminal charges, but it is not expected that he will be tried before the election on November 5th.

After Trump was found guilty in the hush money trial, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) fell by 13% after the market closed.（Source：Investing.com)

About the 2024 U.S. Election

The leading figure among the Republican presidential candidates is the 77-year-old former U.S. President Trump, who just won the Iowa caucus with an overwhelming number of votes. The 81-year-old incumbent U.S. President Biden is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. If Biden is elected and ushers in a second four-year term, he will become the oldest president in U.S. history.

What impact will this verdict have on the 2024 U.S. election?

1. Increased difficulties for Trump's candidacy 

The verdict will bring great difficulties for Trump to continue running, especially for those swing voters who may not be able to accept a person publicly recognized as having a criminal record as the President of the United States.

2. Uncertainty of legal procedures 

If the Democratic Party goes through the corresponding legal procedures to restrict Trump's freedom of action and even lead to Trump being imprisoned, this will have a substantial impact on the election. Trump will not be able to interact with voters face-to-face, weakening his on-site mobilization ability.

3. Changes in political mobilization 

If Trump is imprisoned, it may form an interesting scene where Trump's supporters may go to the prison to support him, turning the prison into some kind of "holy land."

4. Intensifying political division 

Such a verdict will deepen the existing division in American society. Trump's supporters have reasons to be more hostile to the establishment, while supporters of the Democratic Party may despise Trump and his supporters even more.

5. Impact on the election process and results

This kind of verdict increases the uncertainty of the 2024 U.S. presidential election process, results, and long-term impact.

6. Trump's image points 

In some cases, Trump may gain points from this verdict because such a verdict may be seen as the Democratic Party using judicial tools for political persecution, thereby stimulating the emotions of Trump's supporters.

7. Questioning judicial fairness 

In contrast to Biden's situation, it may further deepen the public's view of judicial injustice and systemic injustice.

8. Negative impact on the election atmosphere 

This verdict will not make the election more positive, but may instead intensify social division and confrontation, affecting the healthy atmosphere of the election.

Can Trump still run for re-election? 

Yes. 

There is no provision in the U.S. Constitution that prohibits a person who has committed a felony from running for or becoming president. For Trump, this may have political consequences, but the conviction itself does not affect his participation in the campaign.

Can Trump self-pardon? 

Not quite. 

If Trump is successfully elected president, the president can pardon federal crimes - even those he has committed. But this pardon power does not apply to state convictions. Therefore, even if he regains the White House, Trump cannot erase his conviction in New York State. The governor of New York State can pardon Trump, but this is a blue state led by the Democratic Party, so it is unlikely to happen.

Will Trump go to jail? 

Unlikely. 

Although the charges can be sentenced to a maximum of 4 years in prison, and the presiding judge Juan Merchan has broad discretion and can impose more severe punishment. But some situations may exempt Trump from imprisonment: Trump is a first-time offender at the age of 77, and he was convicted of a low-level non-violent crime. The judge can choose to let Trump pay a fine or allow him to remain free under certain conditions, provided that he does not commit any crimes during this period. Even if he is really sentenced to prison, Trump can apply for bail to avoid detention during the appeal period. And if Trump is successfully elected president, to avoid interference with his official duties, he will almost certainly be exempt from detention during his term.

Can Trump appeal? How long does the appeal process take? 

Yes, it will take at least a year. 

Trump will almost certainly appeal to the Manhattan Appellate Court. Some media reports suggest that criminal defense lawyers believe Trump has several arguments that could potentially overturn the conviction, but none are guaranteed to succeed. Trump may also argue that he was improperly indicted in state court and that Judge Juan Merchan has no jurisdiction over the case. He may also claim that the prosecution's charges are too vague, preventing him from adequately preparing his defense. If Trump appeals, it could take at least a year, involving the highest state courts or the U.S. Supreme Court. If Trump successfully convinces the appellate court to overturn the verdict, it may happen after the election.