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大行評級|瑞銀:維持對內銀建設性看法 看好招行、信行
瑞銀髮表報吿指,人民銀行宣佈計劃設立3,000億元保障性住房再貸款機制,作為支持地方國有企業購買保障性住房的新貨幣政策工具。3,000億的貸款將佔21家銀行貸款總額的60%,包括政策性銀行、大型國有銀行和股份制銀行,這意味着總計5,000億元資金。瑞銀認為,今次銀行可能更願意參與。首先,與過去的房地產開發商和項目公司相比,今次的借款人將是地方國有企業或地方政府融資擔保公司,可能會得到地方政府的支持。其次,該行預計貸款利率可能達到約3至3.5%。另外,在銷售收入可用於停滯項目的情況下,估計在停滯項目完工並交付使用後,銀行可收回超過7,000億元的潛在虧損。瑞銀維持對內銀建設性看法,因為政策推出似乎正在加速;市場估值已經計入了負面催化劑;具吸引力的股息率可為下行空間提供保護。該行看好招行、信行,如果市場情緒進一步改善,它們可能會有更多上升空間。大型國有銀行中則看好建行及中行。
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