研報掘金|中金:預計物管股今年盈利增速10至20% 建議關注中海物業、萬物雲等
中金髮表報吿指,近一個月物管板塊隨地產政策出台及投資情緒轉向而錄得相當升幅,核心覆蓋股票自4月16日低位至今平均錄得45%升幅。該行認為在當前政策施力方向下,實體市場一年及以上量價企穩及結構性復甦的可見度有所提升,雖然股價反應或前置於實體市場修復,但若出現階段性獲利了結則有望提供佈局窗口。
綜合企業基本面和財務及估值指標,中金建議關注中海物業、萬物雲、融創服務、綠城服務、保利物業及華潤萬象生活,亦推薦代建龍頭綠城管理,惟維持覆蓋物管股評級及目標價不變。
中金預計物管股今年盈利增速大致介乎10至20%,房地產行業潛在量價復甦提升兑現確定性、但隱含彈性相對有限。預計核心覆蓋標的今年收入增速平均為13%、淨利潤和核心淨利潤增速平均為15%,其中基礎物管收入平均增長16%、開發商增值業務按年跌10%、業主增值業務按年增13%,淨利潤率在收入結構和管理效率兩方面變化影響下大致走平。
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