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資金買爆了,港股通紅利ETF溢價4%上升

今日紅利主題的ETF依舊錶現亮眼,華泰柏瑞基金港股通紅利ETF領升全市場,午後升幅進一步擴大為3.98%,但溢折率為4.51%。易方達基金恒生紅利低波ETF升幅緊隨其後,升2.39%

消息面上,5月9日,彭博通訊社報道國內監管機構正考慮減免內地個人投資者通過港股通投資香港上市公司時,在取得股息紅利時所需繳納的20%的所得税。

此外,今年兩會期間,香港證監會主席雷添良也建議降低港股通個人投資者的股息紅利税收水平以及降低港股通內地投資者的准入標準。

受該消息影響,上週五多隻港股紅利相關ETF大升超5%,同時港股央企紅利ETF、港股紅利指數ETF、港股通央企紅利ETF等多隻紅利相關ETF單位份額淨值均創上市以來新高。

從紅利主題ETF今年的份額變化來看,截止5月10日,份額增加最多的是華泰柏瑞基金紅利低波ETF,年內增加43.47億份。天弘基金紅利低波動ETF、景順長城基金紅利低波100ETF年內份額分別增加28.13億份、14.75億份。

從紅利主題ETF的規模來看,截至5月13日,規模最大的是華泰柏瑞基金紅利ETF,最新規模為187.03億元,其次是景順長城基金紅利低波100ETF、華泰柏瑞基金紅利低波ETF的最新規模為76.2億元和75.77億元。華泰柏瑞基金紅利ETF跟蹤的指數是紅利指數。

中證指數官網顯示,上證紅利指數選取在上海證券交易所上市的現金股息率高、分紅比較穩定、具有一定規模及流動性的50只證券作為指數樣本,以反映滬市高股息率證券的整體表現。

從紅利指數的前十大重倉股名單來看,第一權重股是中信銀行,佔比為5.28%。中國神華、海瀾之家和陝西煤業分別位列第二、第三和第四大權重股。

對於紅利主題後續的投資展望,對於港股通紅利税調整的傳聞,中信證券認為港股通紅利税若調整,有利於税收公平,但尚存不確定性。如調整,短期提振情緒,直接減免規模有限;中長期提升高分紅投資吸引力以及港股流動性。

中信證券在研報中指出,根據當前報道,本次港股通紅利税收潛在調整目前可能更多是針對內地個人投資者,而對於更加偏好高分紅的長期價值投資者,如社保與保險等本就不涉及港股通紅利税這一問題,因此潛在的直接税收減免或許有限。但是若本質上代表個人投資者的公募基金同樣被納入進潛在調整範疇內,那麼所帶來的影響可能更大一些。

華泰證券認為,上週五收盤AH溢價收窄至137,或已基本體現紅利税變化預期的“一次性”影響。短期,4月金融數據或催化高股息vs恒科的超額收益。後續對風格的關鍵影響因素為:北京/上海的地產限購政策變化預期、6月FOMC會議對貨幣政策的進一步表態。中期,內外宏觀環境、央國企市值管理訴求與動態分紅率有望提升共同指向港股紅利資產或將持續展現配置價值。

富國基金白冰洋認為,“紅利策略往後走是會出現分化的,核心點在於對可持續性的判斷。公司股息的核心來源是什麼?供需、競爭格局、資本投入是怎樣的?潛在風險在哪裏?這些都是需要從多個角度需要考慮的問題。”

總體來看,機構普遍共識是:偏弱的金融數據或對A股風險偏好的修復形成擾動,對應板塊輪動的行情仍會持續,配置上紅利股仍是底倉首選。

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