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大行評級|星展:重申中行“買入”評級 目標價上調至3.9港元
星展發表研究報吿指,中行首季業績表現符合預期,純利按年跌2.9%,不良貸款率於截至去年12月底止下降5個基點後,首季末再按季下降3個基點,屬國有銀行中最大降幅,預期資產質量改善以及信貸成本下降,將支持其盈利增長。中行有約19%資產以外匯計價,令其去年度淨息差按年降幅少於同業表現。然而星展認為,隨着美聯儲利率上行週期結束及外匯存款利率上升,淨息差上行趨勢今年內預期會完結,相關優勢或減弱。星展預計中行2023至2026財年盈利年均複合增長率為2.3%,相信在中國經濟前景面臨不確定性,以及環球利率可能較長時間維持於高水平的情況下,中行將提供多元化的海外投資機會,短期內可繼續吸引資金流入,重申“買入”評級,目標價由3.7港元上調至3.9港元。但考慮到今年盈利有下行壓力,星展亦將中行2024至2025年盈利預測下調3%至4%。
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