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研報掘金|招商證券:中國互聯網產業從穩定邁向復甦 首推騰訊、網易和騰訊音樂

招商證券發表報吿指,中國互聯網產業從穩定邁向復甦。在過去兩週中,整體股市情緒的提振推動中國互聯網行業的大幅回升。在這次強勁的反彈之前,該行已經觀察到自一月以來,互聯網行業的估值從底部開啟穩定回升,而近期的股價得到去年第四季可觀的業績支持,股東回報大幅提升,形式包括現金股息、新增股票回購計劃或擴大現有回購規模等。招商證券認為,相較疫情放開後的估值小高峯,互聯網行業當前估值仍處於低位,並相對海外同業有53%的EV/EBITDA折價。部分公司仍富可觀增長,如騰訊、騰訊音樂、拼多多2023至2025年EBITDA年複合增速達29%。

該行指,相比今年第一季的平穩業績,更加期待管理層對今年剩餘幾個季度更加樂觀的展望,因為首季通常是電商和廣吿業務的淡季,而這兩個業務是互聯網行業公司的兩大主要收入支柱。同時預計電商業務將實現小幅增長,而廣吿業務保持良好增長,一定程度上也受到遊戲的推動。該行亦指,正等待更多積極的利好消息推動盈利上調。首推騰訊、網易和騰訊音樂;具有可觀股東回報率的價值投資也很有吸引力,例如阿里巴巴、京東和唯品會。

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