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巴菲特出手了,這次是套利?
格隆匯 04-01 15:15
美國證券交易委員會最新文件透露,巴菲特旗下公司伯克希爾上週斥資2900萬美元買入890萬股自由媒體集團Liberty SiriusXM(LSXMA)C類股,1.1億美元買入380萬股A類股。

Liberty SiriusXM是由美國傳媒大亨約翰·馬龍控制的衞星廣播公司SiriusXM的跟蹤股,擁有天狼星XM SiriusXM(SIRI)約80%的股權。

天狼星XM是一家音頻娛樂公司,通過訂閲收費服務提供音樂、體育、喜劇、脱口秀、新聞和其他頻道。

對於這筆投資,《巴倫週刊》報道,有“伯克希爾觀察家”判斷稱,根據巴菲特以往的交易風格,這筆交易顯得非常特別且罕見,不像是巴菲特的手筆,更像是其副手泰德·韋施勒主導的操盤。

從商業模式角度看,這家公司確實和巴菲特長期持有的蘋果、可口可樂、富國銀行等公司有很大差別。

細究起來,這可能更像是巴菲特的一筆“套利”交易。

Liberty SiriusXM已與SiriusXM宣佈合併。2023年12月12日,天狼星XM宣佈,決定簡化追蹤股的交易結構,天狼星XM追蹤股(LSXMA、LSXMK和LSXMB),將與天狼星XM進行合併,合併後的新公司保留天狼星XM的品牌和交易代碼SIRI。

根據公吿,天狼星XM的現有股東,將按照1:1的比例獲得新天狼星公司的股票,而現有追蹤股的持有人,將按照1:8.4的比例獲得新公司股票。按上述換股比例計算,套利空間一度高達45%,但由於天狼星XM股價持續大跌,套利空間明顯收窄。

天狼星XM股價今年遭遇猛烈做空,年內累計跌幅達28.72%。目前天狼星XM的空頭比例佔其流通股的27%,這是一個相當大的比例。

除伯克希爾外,千禧年、Point72等知名基金,也都參與了這次套利機會。有分析人士警吿稱,作為一個交易性機會,同樣也存在風險,等到追蹤股的股東們拿到新公司的股票,他們是否會蜂擁賣出,從而導致股價崩盤?僅有的套利空間或迅速縮小甚至虧損?

巴菲特從事套利投資已有60餘年,他曾經把自己所投資公司的方法簡單地分為三類:第一類是通常的低價股投資,第二類是併購套利,第三類則是通過控股來實現投資增值。

關於巴菲特的第一類和第三類投資方法,已經有很多相關書籍介紹,而對第二類投資方法:併購套利,卻由於其專業性和複雜性而相對比較少見。

在致股東信中,巴菲特提到過對套利投資的看法,要點為:

1.套利機會出現在併購、清算、重組、分拆等公司活動中。投資結果主要取決於公司行為,而不是股市行情。套利最大的風險是中途出現意外,預期的進展沒實現。常見的意外包括反壟斷等政府幹預、股東否決、税收政策限制等。

2.做套利投資不聽傳聞或“內幕消息”,只看公司的公吿,公吿出來之後才出手。為了提高成功概率,需要儘可能瞭解所有情況,持續跟蹤最新進展,根據經驗評估方方面面。

3.套利投資的確定性高、持有時間短,年化收益率是相當不錯的,絕對利潤比投資低估類股票穩定。在市場下跌時,套利類投資積少成多,能帶來領先優勢;在牛市中,則會拖累業績。
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