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花旗料布油明年底或跌至每桶55美元 籲產油商就2025年產出預早作對沖
花旗上周日(17日)發表報告,指今年首季國際油價持續於較高水平,並預期油組及夥伴國(OPEC+)將維持減產至今年12月,但仍建議產油商就2025年產出預早作對沖,提防油價急跌。 該行料今年次季布蘭特期油將平均處於每桶78美元水平,第三季跌至每桶74美元水平,末季進一步跌至每桶70美元水平。該行對明年油價出乎預期悲觀,料明年首季每桶65美元水平,明年第二及第三季處每桶60美元水平,明年末季或跌至每桶55美元水平。 在電子交易時段,布蘭特5月期油現微跌不足0.1%,報每桶86.84美元。 報告稱,悲觀展望源於油組國家閒置產能,以及來自非油組國家的新生產。油組國家閒置產能較新冠疫情前增加每日約200萬桶。該行並預期全球需求增長放緩,部分由於電動車滲透率上升以及經濟環境轉弱。 報告承認與以色列、伊朗、伊拉克、利比亞及委內瑞拉相關的供應風險,但指沙地、阿聯酋、科威特及俄羅斯在有需要時可以增產。自OPEC+開始減產後,阿聯酋產能顯著擴張。 非油組國家而言,該行料美國今年增產每日50萬桶,加拿大每日增產20萬桶,巴西每日增產40萬桶,圭亞那每日增產15萬桶。該行料上述國家明年可實現額外產量。 花旗不預期石油業上游資本開支將觸及過去十年高位,惟相信開支下降的影響會被生產力上升所抵銷。 「三桶油」H股今日(19日)午後造好,中石化(00386.HK)微升0.4%、中石油(00857.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)升1.7%至1.9%。
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