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《大行報告》摩通相信內銀今年續表現優異 四大行中料建行(00939.HK)工行(01398.HK)上升空間較大
摩根大通發報告指,中國銀行業在2024財年和2025財年仍能保持穩定的每股派息。而由於股息收益率吸引,MSCI中國銀行業指數年初至今已經超越MSCI中國指數11個百分點。該行認為,趨勢於2024年將持續。 摩通指,即使假設內銀收入出現負增長,銀行仍然可以透過2024財年和2025財年的資本和撥備管理提供穩定的股息分配。該行透過分析歷史上的股息差價趨勢,認為即使2024財年10年期美國殖利率下降,H股股價上漲空間仍低於A股。此外,招商銀行A股的股價上升空間有35%,大於四大行平均水平的約20%。同時又估計,在四大行中,建設銀行(00939.HK)和工商銀行(01398.HK)無論是A股還是H股,都比農業銀行(01288.HK)或中國銀行(03988.HK)有更大的股價上升空間。
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