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惠譽博華:內地汽車業價格戰激烈 智能化成未來趨勢
惠譽博華發表2024年汽車行業信用展望報告,對2024年汽車行業的信用展望為「中景氣穩定」,預計汽車行業將繼續面臨價格戰和智能化升級的挑戰。 報告提到2023年中國汽車產銷量,均創下歷史新高,突破三千萬輛以上,其中乘用車和商用車銷量有雙位數增長。汽車出口量躍居全球首位,新能源汽車出口量按年大幅增長,但國際政策風險正加劇。 展望2024年,惠譽博華預計中國汽車總體銷量將保持3%至5%的低速增長,商用車和乘用車增速相近,但品牌和車型之間的銷量增速將出現明顯分化。汽車行業將面臨價格戰和智能化技術被快速輪替取代的雙重挑戰,新能源汽車和傳統燃油車的銷量分化進一步加劇。此外,汽車出口增速或將放緩,但仍可保持雙位數的高增長。 上游方面,2023年動力電池核心原材料碳酸鋰價格下跌,鋼材、橡膠等大宗原材料價格回落,海運費用下降,降低了行業內廠商的成本。供應鏈智能化,主流配件的銷量增長超過主機廠商,激光雷達等產品銷量快速上升。 儘管2023年行業內價格戰激烈,自主品牌銷量快速提升,上游原材料價格顯著回落,多數廠商淨利潤表現強勁。但預計2024年行業上游成本下降空間將收窄,價格戰將侵蝕車企盈利能力。在電動化、智能化趨勢下,具有全球生產和銷售多元化優勢的主機廠商盈利能力將持續提升,而技術落後和銷量不及預期的車企將面臨加速淘汰風險。
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