瑞銀汪濤:維持對2024年中國GDP增速放緩至4.6%基準預測
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,中國不會進行大規模貨幣寬鬆或出台大規模的直接消費補貼,因而維持對2024年中國GDP增速放緩至4.6%的基準預測,又認為低基數效應消退、以及房地產市場下行持續是拖累經濟增速的主要原因。
瑞銀預計中國房地產銷售會受高基數影響,按年跌幅會擴大,房地產投資仍低迷,固定資產投資(2%)、社會消費品零售總額(5.5%)和工業生產(4.6%)按年增速放緩,出口小幅走弱(按年增長1.5%)。而在全國人大會議上,政府或將基本延續去年12月中央經濟工作會議設定的政策基調。貨幣信貸政策將維持支持基調,瑞銀預計年內央行或將再下調政策利率10-20個基點,降準25個基點。
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