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《大行報告》招商證券降海底撈(06862.HK)目標價至14.5元 關注人工成本和新餐廳開業細節
招商證券發表報告指,海底撈(06862.HK)發盈喜,2023財年營收符合預期,淨利潤好於預期。預計海底撈在2023財年將錄得不低於414億元人民幣的持續經營業務收入,按年增長33.3%,比招證國際預測高2.8%。2023財年持續經營業務淨利潤應不低於44億元人民幣,按年增長220.2%,比招證國際預測高6.6%,暗示2023年下半年的收入預計將按年增長55.6%,比招證國際預測高3.9%,而2023年下半年的淨利潤預計將按年增長30.5%,比招證國際預測高14.5%。 鑒於海底撈只發布了盈喜,且未公布詳細財務情況,招商證券暫不改變預測。該行指,海底撈2023財年的盈喜並不意外,認為已經反映在股價上。如果海底撈在2024財年能夠維持較高的利潤率,通過較低的人力成本佔收入百分比,這可能會成為股價上漲的催化劑。同時認為,下一個催化劑會是 海底撈重新開始開設新餐廳。該行指將等待公司3月發布的2023財年詳細業績,以進一步了解利潤率和2024財年的開店策略。短期內,預計海底撈的股價不會跑贏大市,維持「中性」評級,將目標價從18.1元下調至14.5元。
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