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《大行報告》高盛料今年本港住宅樓價跌5% 明年回升5%
高盛發表報告,考慮到香港樓市交投放緩,升級換樓和投資需求疲軟,將今年住宅價格預測從持平下調至跌5%。不過該行預計,在銀行第二季開始下調按揭利率後,市場將復甦,因此上調明年住宅價格預測至升5% 。 高盛預計,宏觀背景弱過預期和利率高過預期,繼續對樓價構成壓力,香港住宅物業價格已從2021年8月的高位下跌約23%,並在年初至今下跌0.5%,表現繼續疲軟。樓價下跌的同時,成交量亦都相對較低,反映即使樓價下跌,買家買樓欲望仍然疲弱。一個值得注意的利好因素是人才湧入香港,推高租金,但與按揭利率相比,住宅租金收益率仍然偏低。 在本地地產股中,該行偏好長實(01113.HK),因其在內地和香港房地產投資最少,約一半的息稅前盈利來自於內地以外的基建、公用事業等,而且無資產負債,股息率也在可控範圍內,因此在每股派息得分最高。另一方面,該行認為新世界(00017.HK)每股盈利和每股派息低過預期,表現相對較差。
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