《即日市評》恆指失萬五關 創近15個月低 內房及內需股弱
阿思達克 01-22 17:04
中國1月一年及五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)維持不變，分別持平於3.45%及4.2%，市場關注內地貨幣政策放鬆走向，恆指今日向下及失守萬五關。市場續消化聯儲局減息預期，美股道指及納指上周五各升近1.1%及1.7%；執筆之時，美國10年期債券孳息率跌至4.134厘，美匯指數跌至103.28，道指期貨最新升49點或0.13%，納指期貨最新升0.5%。上證綜指全日下滑75點或2.68%收2,756點，深證成指跌3.5%，而滬深兩市成交額共7,941億人民幣。
恆指高開40點，初段曾升54點一度高見15,362點後掉頭向下，午後曾跌514點見14,794點。全日跌347點或2.3%，收14,961點；國指跌125點或2.4%，收5,001點；恆生科技指數跌94點或3%，收3,035點。大市全日成交總額增至1,121.78億元。滬、深港通南下交易淨流入18.78億及2.55億元人民幣。科網股造淡，阿里(09988.HK)及京東(09618.HK)跌0.2%及2%，騰訊(00700.HK)及百度(09888.HK)跌3.3%及3.6%，美團(03690.HK)跌4.7%。
恆指今日失守萬五關，今年1月以來累跌2,086點或12.2%，而恆生科指1月以來累跌728點或19.4%。
【LPR不變 內房股捱沽】
內房股涯沽，綠城中國(03900.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)及遠洋(03377.HK)跌9.5%至11.1%，碧桂園(02007.HK)下滑7.6%。內銀股走個別，工行(01398.HK)跌1.4%，中行(03988.HK)走低2.4%，但招行(03968.HK)升0.8%。
瑞銀發表報告指，預期當局將會推出溫和的政策支持，計及可能新發的政府國債，估計財政赤字率3.5%至3.8%，據報政府亦考慮發行1萬億元人民幣超長期特別國債。該行認為貨幣政策空間有限，MLF利率或下調10至20點子、存款準備金率或下調25至50點子，亦可能透過流動性安排支持財政擴張，人行1月保持MLF利率不變，令市場失望。
【跌股千五 內需股走疲】
港股今日市寬進一步轉弱，主板股票的升跌比率為8比38(上日15為比26)，下跌股份1,593隻(跌幅4.3%)，恆指成份股今日3隻股份上升，下跌股份78隻，升跌比率為4比95(上日為27比70)；大市今日錄沽空224.6億元，佔可沽空股份成交額967.68億元的23.21%(上日為21.582%)。
消費股疲弱，百威亞太(01876.HK)股價跌4.5%。青啤(00168.HK)及潤啤(00291.HK)跌5%及5.4%。滔搏(06110.HK)跌9.6%，海底撈(06862.HK)下滑6.7%。
摩根士丹利發表報告指，百威亞太高端化和擴張策略在中國仍然有效，但核心業務因銷售下降而被削弱。集團去年10月上調平均售價的正面貢獻，被南韓市場的競爭壓力及售價上升令銷量短期下降所抵銷。
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