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瑞銀汪濤料今年底中國信貸增速或保持於9.5%穩健水平
阿思達克 01-15 16:48
中國去年12月新增人民幣貸款1.17萬億元人民幣(下同),低於市場預期的1.35萬億元。瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,數據反映出企業信貸需求仍較為乏力,同時亦由於去年同期政府鼓勵銀行加大貸款投放力度,推高去年基數。 瑞銀又預計,未來幾個月內地房地產銷售及相關信貸逐步企穩,隨著經濟增長動能企穩,企業信貸需求有望有所改善。她預測今年底信貸增速可能保持在9.5%的穩健水平,為配合未來大規模政府債券發行、緩解通縮壓力以及支撐經濟增長,預期人民銀行將進一步放鬆貨幣政策,包括再降息10至20個基點及再降準25至50個基點,並將結合使用一些其他流動性工具,特別是市場密切關注的PSL投放,最快會於農曆新年前幾周降息及降準。 瑞銀估計2024年中國政府債券發行可能保持強勁,預計當局會將2024年財政赤字率設定為GDP的3.5%至3.8%,包括可能發行的新一批特別國債,並將再發行2萬至3萬億元的地方政府特殊再融資債券。
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