《大行報告》摩通:不預期中植集團破產會引發系統性風險
摩通發表報告指出,中植集團已於去年11月宣布無力償還債務,因此公司上周五(5日)申請破產應是意料之中。
該行認為,中植破產並不會引發系統性風險,主要由於公司欠債約2,600億元人民幣,僅佔中國信貸總額的0.1%,相信債權人(包括銀行)及投資者可承擔損失;信託佔開發商融資的5%,因此即使信託違約升溫,對開發商整體流動性的影響負面,但並非有危害性。
此外,該行提及在2016至2018年內地監管收緊後,內銀已顯著減少影子銀行體系風險敞口,銀行不再為其發行的投資產品提供支援,限制溢出風險;去年第三季地方政府融資平台(LGFV)息差收窄,以及基礎產業信託資產管理規模(AUM)的上升,意味著房地產業對地方政府融資平台的流動性風險溢出程度低過該行預期。
然而,該行認為中植事件將抑制中國的投資情緒,並影響銀行的手續費收入,但長遠而言,或對導致企業投資者和高淨值個人投資者將資金從影子銀行產品(如信託),重新配置到高股息率的國企股份,如建行(00939.HK)、工行(01398.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、郵儲行(01658.HK)、中行(03988.HK)和交行(03328.HK)。相對於信託產品孳息率約6%至8%,A股國有銀行的股息率約為6%。
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