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《大行報告》大和降阿里(09988.HK)目標價至108元 下調第三財季收入增長預測
大和發表報告指,將阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)第三財季收入增長預測由按年8%增長下調至6.4%,即2,630億元人民幣,考慮到客戶管理收入(CMR)組合改變,以及預計非通用會計準則稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤或按年持平至520億元人民幣。進取的股票回購是其股價的關鍵催化劑。 該行相信,阿里2024財年第三財季商品交易總額(GMV)按年升5%,但下調淘寶及天貓CMR預測至按年升1.5%,並料GMV和CMR之間差距將於第四財季起收窄,主要是淘寶GMV組合改變或已穩定下來。 大和預料,阿里第三財季收入保持強勁,按年升43%,受惠零售業務表現強勁,相信集團將未來積極投資全球速賣通,料該業務EBITA虧損高峰達到25億元人民幣。即使中國的物流收入增長乏力,但受惠跨境電商需求旺盛,預期菜鳥第三財季收入年升21%。 該行表示,將阿里巴巴在2024年至26年每股盈測下調3%至4%,將其目標價由114元下調至108元,維持其評級為「買入」。(ca/w) ~
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