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《大行報告》中信証券:科網股關注在線音樂、票務平台及網絡貨運 行業格局較清晰有騰訊及網易等
中信証券發表研究報告指,2023年中概互聯網板塊圍繞宏觀復甦及利率環境演繹,呈現區間震蕩行情,2023全年恆生科技及中概互聯網指數分別累計跌8.8%及跌10.6%。其中,在賽道內份額穩健增長的拼多多(PDD.US)、唯品會(VIPS.US)、網易(09999.HK)、滴滴、貝殼(02423.HK)、騰訊音樂(01698.HK)(TME.US)等實現超額收益,在2023年各大企業分別累計上漲79.4%、30.2%、25%、24.2%、17.4%、8.8%。 展望2024年,該行認為互聯網行業傳統業務將逐步步入成熟階段,收入端與宏觀周期的相關性逐漸增加,利潤率受競爭格局變化擾動。該行建議,在不同經濟修復程度下,優選競爭格局穩固、份額提升的龍頭公司。宏觀經濟明顯改善背景下,建議關注在線招聘、廣告、電商等賽道公司;宏觀經濟前景不確定性的背景下,建議關注在線音樂、票務平台、網絡貨運等賽道公司。 投資策略方面,該行認為網路板塊行情仍將圍繞宏觀交易邏輯以及公司基本面展開演繹,其中1)短期業績與經濟週期相關度低,2)競爭格局穩固,3)業務調整積極為市場重點關注因素。建議優先關注同時滿足三個因素的公司,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、網易、騰訊音樂、滿幫集團(YMM.US)等;其次,關注滿足兩個因素的公司,包括拼多多、快手(01024.HK)、BOSS直聘(02076.HK)、嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)、愛奇藝(IQ.US)、閱文集團(00772.HK)等。(ca/u) ~
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