東亞料美國長期國債收益率下行可觸發港股估值重估
東亞銀行首席投資策略師李振豪表示,2023年全球股市出現多項異象,未來核心風險之一是經濟失速下滑。市場分析結果顯示,價值型及高息股表現向好,銀行股和科技股走勢兩極。今年股市的三大風險因素分別是美國總統大選年、利率拐點及經濟下滑。
他指,美國總統大選年間,美股表現完勝非美股市,而利率出現拐點和經濟下滑將有利防守型股份。加入科技熱潮因素作考量,投資者應有序增持價值型股份,以對沖增長型股份隨時轉弱的風險。
該行報告指,由於美國長期國債收益率已邁進下行趨勢,相信可觸發港股估值重估。給予恆生指數2024年預測市盈率目標九倍,恆生指數未來十二個月的目標水平為19,500點。
另外,3月的業績發布高峰期將是另一考驗,中資金融、非必需消費、原材料、房地產等板塊的盈利預測下調壓力較大,但相信已屆盈測下調階段的尾聲。
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