《大行報告》海通國際降東亞(00023.HK)目標價至11.91元 料資產質素改善需時
海通國際發表評級報告,預計東亞銀行(00023.HK)貸款全年依然為負增長為降2.5%,2023年上半年貸款增長為3.2%,而2023年下半年的1個月香港銀行同業拆息均值超過5%,雖然有利於貸款端定價,但預計往來及儲蓄存款(CASA)佔比仍然繼續下滑拖累負債端成本,最終導致淨息差很難進一步大幅上升,而是高位走平。
該行表示,東亞銀行2023年上半年淨息差預測為2.01%,2023年全年淨息差則為2.06%。而歷史數據顯示加息結束後,淨息差並不會迅速下跌,故預計2024年淨息差可能仍保持高位,較為明顯的淨息差下行或發生在2025年。
海通國際指,在資產質量方面,內房依然是影響其計提減值損失也即信貸成本的最主要因素,故預計2023年下半年信貸成本和不良率大概率繼續惡化,2024年和2025年有可能緩慢好轉,預料2023年信貸成本約97個基點,而不良率升至2.76%,料資產質素改善需時。
該行預計,東亞在2023年至2025年歸母淨利潤增速分別為升24.5%、升14.2%、降1.6%,並將其目標價由14.42元下調至11.91元,維持其評級為「優於大市」。(ca/)
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